Point Estimate Mini Case:German Tank Problem >Play Game Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-1
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-1 Point Estimate Mini Case: German Tank Problem Play Game
Point Estimate 1←●● ◆N XiX2 E1=Xn+(X1-1) E2=X,+X-l+X,-X++X。-X n n E3=2x Median E4=2×Mean Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-2
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-2 Point Estimate X 1 X 2 X n 1 N …… 1 1 ( 1) EX X n 1 21 1 ( 1 ... ) 2 n n n n n X XX XX E X n X X n E3 2 Median E4 2 Mean
Estimates for some specific months Month Statistical Intelligence German Estimate Estimate Records June 1940 169 1000 122 June 1941 244 1550 271 August 1942 327 1550 342 Source:Wikepedia about Tank Problem Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-3
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-3 Estimates for some specific months Month Statistical Estimate Intelligence Estimate German Records June 1940 169 1000 122 June 1941 244 1550 271 August 1942 327 1550 342 Source: Wikepedia about Tank Problem
A Mini Case Discussion >We are the maker of the cereal box of 16 ounce.Consumer reports has just published an article that shows that we frequently have less than 15 ounces of cereal in a box. >What should we do? Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-4
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-4 We are the maker of the cereal box of 16 ounce. Consumer reports has just published an article that shows that we frequently have less than 15 ounces of cereal in a box. What should we do? A Mini Case Discussion
Point and Interval Estimates A point estimate is a single number or single sample statistic that is used to estimate the true value of population parameter(for example,the sample mean is a point estimate of the population mean) a confidence interval provides additional information about variability.The interval has a specified confidence or probability of correctly estimating the true value of the population parameters. Lower Upper Confidence Confidence Point Estimate Limit Limit Width of confidence interval (e.g.,95%certainty the interval includes the population mean) Statistics for Ma agers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-5
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel Chap 7-5 Point and Interval Estimates A point estimate is a single number or single sample statistic that is used to estimate the true value of population parameter (for example, the sample mean is a point estimate of the population mean) a confidence interval provides additional information about variability. The interval has a specified confidence or probability of correctly estimating the true value of the population parameters. Point Estimate Lower Confidence Limit Upper Confidence Limit Width of confidence interval (e.g., 95% certainty the interval includes the population mean)