芸芸视频QQ:747883097TL:02881942202推荐:09新东方公共课程 考研英语英译汉、完型与词汇分册 第一部分英译汉全真试题(1994-2004年) According to the new school of scientists, technology is an overlooked force in expanding the horizons of scientific dge. 71)Science moves fo more ordinary things like improved techniques and tools. 72)"In short",a leader of the new school contends, the scientific revolution, as we call it. was largely the improvement and invention and use of a series of instruments that expanded the reach of science in innumerable directions. "73)Over the vears. tools and technology themselves as a ource of fundamental innovation have largely been ignored by historians and philosophers of science. The modern school that hails technology argues that such masters as Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and inventors such as Edison attached great importance to, and derived great benefit from, craft information and technological devices of different kinds that were usable in scientific experiments. The centerpiece of the argument of a technology-yes, genius-no advocate was an analysis of Galileo's role at the start of the scientific revolution. The wisdom of the day was derived from Ptolemy, astronomer of the second century, whose elaborate system of the sky put Earth at the center of all heavenly motions. 74) Galileo's greatest glory was that in 1609 he was the first person to turn the newly invented telescope on the heavens to prove that the planets revolve around the sun rather than around the Earth. But the real hero of the story, according to the new school of scientists, was the long evolution in the improvement of macl for making eyeglass Federal policy is necessarily involved in the technology vs. genius dispute. 75)Whether the Government should increase the financing of pure science at the expense of technology or vice versa often depends on the issue of which is seen as the driving forc age 2 The standardized educational or psychological tests that are widely used to aid in selecting, classifying, assigning, or promoting students, employees, and military personnel have been the target of recent attacks in books, magazines, the daily press, and even in congress. 71) The target is wrong, for in attacking the tests. critics divert attention from the fault that lies with ill-informed or incompetent users. The tests themselves are merely tools, with characteristics that can be measured with reasonable precision under specified conditions. Whether the results will be valuable, meaningless, or even misleading depends partly upon the tool itself but largely upon the user. All informed predictions of future performance are based upon some knowledge of relevant past performance: school grades research productive, sales records, or whatever is appropriate. 72) How well the predictions will be validated by later performance depends upon the amount, reliability. and appropriateness of the information used and on the skill and wisdom with which it is interpreted. Anyone who keeps careful score knows that the information available is always incomplete and that the predictions are always subject to error Standardized tests should be considered in this context. They provide a quick, objective method of getting some kids of information about what a person learned, the skills he has developed or the kinds of person he is. The information so obtained has, qualitatively, the same advantages and shortcomings as other kinds of information. 73)Whether to use tests, other kinds of information, or both in a particular situation depends, therefore, upon the evidence from experience concerning
1 考研英语英译汉、完型与词汇分册 第一部分 英译汉全真试题（1994-2004 年） Passage 1 According to the new school of scientists, technology is an overlooked force in expanding the horizons of scientific knowledge. 71) Science moves forward, they say, not so much through the insights of great men of genius as because of more ordinary things like improved techniques and tools.72) "In short", a leader of the new school contends, "the scientific revolution, as we call it, was largely the improvement and invention and use of a series of instruments that expanded the reach of science in innumerable directions." 73) Over the years, tools and technology themselves as a source of fundamental innovation have largely been ignored by historians and philosophers of science. The modern school that hails technology argues that such masters as Galileo, Newton, Maxwell, Einstein, and inventors such as Edison attached great importance to, and derived great benefit from, craft information and technological devices of different kinds that were usable in scientific experiments. The centerpiece of the argument of a technology-yes, genius-no advocate was an analysis of Galileo's role at the start of the scientific revolution. The wisdom of the day was derived from Ptolemy, an astronomer of the second century, whose elaborate system of the sky put Earth at the center of all heavenly motions. 74) Galileo's greatest glory was that in 1609 he was the first person to turn the newly invented telescope on the heavens to prove that the planets revolve around the sun rather than around the Earth. But the real hero of the story, according to the new school of scientists, was the long evolution in the improvement of machinery for making eyeglasses. Federal policy is necessarily involved in the technology vs. genius dispute. 75) Whether the Government should increase the financing of pure science at the expense of technology or vice versa often depends on the issue of which is seen as the driving force. Passage 2 The standardized educational or psychological tests that are widely used to aid in selecting, classifying, assigning, or promoting students, employees, and military personnel have been the target of recent attacks in books, magazines, the daily press, and even in congress. 71) The target is wrong, for in attacking the tests, critics divert attention from the fault that lies with ill-informed or incompetent users. The tests themselves are merely tools, with characteristics that can be measured with reasonable precision under specified conditions. Whether the results will be valuable, meaningless, or even misleading depends partly upon the tool itself but largely upon the user. All informed predictions of future performance are based upon some knowledge of relevant past performance: school grades research productive, sales records, or whatever is appropriate. 72) How well the predictions will be validated by later performance depends upon the amount, reliability, and appropriateness of the information used and on the skill and wisdom with which it is interpreted. Anyone who keeps careful score knows that the information available is always incomplete and that the predictions are always subject to error. Standardized tests should be considered in this context. They provide a quick, objective method of getting some kids of information about what a person learned, the skills he has developed, or the kinds of person he is. The information so obtained has, qualitatively, the same advantages and shortcomings as other kinds of information. 73) Whether to use tests, other kinds of information, or both in a particular situation depends, therefore, upon the evidence from experience concerning
comparative validity and upon such factors as cost and availability 74)In general. the tests work most effectively when the qualities to be measured can be most precisely defined and least effectively when what is to be measured or predicted can not be well defined. Properly used, they provide a rapid means of getting comparable information about many people. Sometimes they identify students whose high potential has not been previously recognized, but there are many things they do not do. 75. For example, they do not compensate for gross social inequality. and thus do not tell how able an underprivileged youngster might have been had he grown up under more favorable cIrcumstances assage The differences in relative growth of various areas of scientific research have several causes. 71)Some of these causes are completely reasonable results of social needs. Others are reasonable consequences of particular advances in science being to some extent self-accelerating. Some, however, are less reasonable processes of different growth in which preconceptions of the form scientific theory ought to take, by persons in authority, act to alter the growth pattern of different areas. This is a new problem probably not yet unavoidable; but it is a frightening trend. 72)This trend began during the Second World War, when several governments came to the conclusion that the specific demands that a government wants to make of its scientific establishment cannot generally be foreseen in detail. It can be predicted however, that from time to time questions will arise which will require specific scientific answers. It is therefore generally valuable to treat the scientific establishment as a resource or machine tomb kept in functional order. 73) This seems mostly effectively done by supporting a certain amount of research not related to immediate goals but of possible This kind of support, like all government support, requires decisions about the appropriate recipients of funds Decisions based on utility as opposed to lack of utility are straightforward But a decision among projects none of which has immediate utility is more difficult. The goal of the supporting agencies is the praisable one of supporting"good"as opposed to"bad"science, but a valid determination is difficult to make. Generally, the idea of good science tends to become confused with the capacity of the field in question to generate an elegant theory. 74)However. the world is so made that elegant systems are in principle unable to deal with some of the world's more fascinating and delightful aspects. 75 New forms of thought as well as new subiects for thought must arise in the future as they have in the past, giving rise to new standards of elegance 4 Do animals have rights? This is how the question is usually put It sounds like a useful, ground-clearing way to start 71)Actually, it isn't, because it assumes that there is an agreed account of human rights, which is something the world does not hav On one view of rights, to be sure, it necessarily follows that animals have none. 72) Some philosophers argue that rights exist only within a social contract, as part of an exchange of duties and entitlements. Therefore, animals cannot have rights The idea of punishing a tiger that kills somebody is absurd for exactly the same reason, so is the idea that tigers have rights However, this is only one account, and by no means an uncontested one. It denies rights not only to animals but also to some people- for instance, to infants, the mentally incapable and future generations. In addition, it is unclear what force a contract can have for people who never consented to it: how do you reply to somebody who says"I don,'t like this contract"? The point is this without agreement on the rights of people, arguing about the rights of animals is fruitless. 73 )It leads the discussion to extremes at the outset; it invites you to think that animals should be treated either with the consideration 2
2 comparative validity and upon such factors as cost and availability. 74) In general, the tests work most effectively when the qualities to be measured can be most precisely defined and least effectively when what is to be measured or predicted can not be well defined. Properly used, they provide a rapid means of getting comparable information about many people. Sometimes they identify students whose high potential has not been previously recognized, but there are many things they do not do. 75. For example, they do not compensate for gross social inequality, and thus do not tell how able an underprivileged youngster might have been had he grown up under more favorable circumstances. Passage3 The differences in relative growth of various areas of scientific research have several causes. 71) Some of these causes are completely reasonable results of social needs. Others are reasonable consequences of particular advances in science being to some extent self-accelerating. Some, however, are less reasonable processes of different growth in which preconceptions of the form scientific theory ought to take, by persons in authority, act to alter the growth pattern of different areas. This is a new problem probably not yet unavoidable; but it is a frightening trend. 72) This trend began during the Second World War, when several governments came to the conclusion that the specific demands that a government wants to make of its scientific establishment cannot generally be foreseen in detail. It can be predicted, however, that from time to time questions will arise which will require specific scientific answers. It is therefore generally valuable to treat the scientific establishment as a resource or machine tomb kept in functional order. 73) This seems mostly effectively done by supporting a certain amount of research not related to immediate goals but of possible consequence in the future. This kind of support, like all government support, requires decisions about the appropriate recipients of funds. Decisions based on utility as opposed to lack of utility are straightforward. But a decision among projects none of which has immediate utility is more difficult. The goal of the supporting agencies is the praisable one of supporting "good " as opposed to "bad" science, but a valid determination is difficult to make. Generally, the idea of good science tends to become confused with the capacity of the field in question to generate an elegant theory. 74) However, the world is so made that elegant systems are in principle unable to deal with some of the world's more fascinating and delightful aspects. 75) New forms of thought as well as new subjects for thought must arise in the future as they have in the past, giving rise to new standards of elegance. Passage 4 Do animals have rights? This is how the question is usually put. It sounds like a useful, ground-clearing way to start. 71) Actually, it isn't, because it assumes that there is an agreed account of human rights, which is something the world does not have. On one view of rights, to be sure, it necessarily follows that animals have none. 72) Some philosophers argue that rights exist only within a social contract, as part of an exchange of duties and entitlements. Therefore, animals cannot have rights. The idea of punishing a tiger that kills somebody is absurd; for exactly the same reason, so is the idea that tigers have rights. However, this is only one account, and by no means an uncontested one. It denies rights not only to animals but also to some people — for instance, to infants, the mentally incapable and future generations. In addition, it is unclear what force a contract can have for people who never consented to it: how do you reply to somebody who says "I don't like this contract"? The point is this without agreement on the rights of people, arguing about the rights of animals is fruitless. 73) It leads the discussion to extremes at the outset: it invites you to think that animals should be treated either with the consideration
humans extend to other humans or with no consideration at all. this is a false choice. Better to start with another. more treat animals a moral issue at all? S In of this kind think that animals lie outside the area of moral choice. Any regard for the suffering of animals is seen as a mistake a sentimental displacement of feeling that should properly be directed to other humans This view, which holds that torturing a monkey is morally equivalent to chopping wood, may seem bravely"logical". In fact it is simply shallow: the confused centre is right to reject it. The most elementary form of moral reasoning-the ethical equivalent of learning to crawl is to weigh others' interests against ones own. This in turn requires sympathy and imagination: without which there is no capacity for moral thought. To see an animal in pain is enough, for most, to engage sympathy. 75)When that happens. it is not a mistake: it is mankinds instinct for moral reasoning in action, an instinct that lould be encouraged rather than laughed at They were, by far, the largest and most distant objects that scientists had ever detected: a strip of enormous cosmic clouds some 15 billion light-years from earth. 71)But even more important, it was the farthest that scientists had been able to look into the past, for what they were seeing were the patterns and structures that existed 15 billion years ago. That was just about the moment that the universe was born. What the researchers found was at once both amazing and expected; the US National Aeronautics and Space Administrations Cosmic Background Explorer satellite - Cobe -had discovered landmark evidence that the universe did in fact begin with the primeval explosion that has become known as the Big bang(the theory that the universe originated in an explosion from a single mass of energy. 72) The existence of the giant clouds was virtually required for the Big Bang. first put forward in the 1920s. to maintain its reign as the dominant explanation of the cosmos. According to the theory, the universe burst into being as a submicroscopic, unimaginable dense knot of pure energy that flew outward in all directions, emitting radiation as it went, condensing into particles and then into atoms of gas. Over billions of years, the gas was compressed by gravity into galaxies, stars, plants and eventually, even humans Cobe is designed to see just the biggest structures, but astronomers would like to see much smaller hot spots as well, the seeds of local objects like clusters and superclusters of galaxies. They shouldnt have long to wait. 73)Astrophysicists working with groundbased detectors at the South Pole and balloon-borne instruments are closing in on such structures. and may report their findings soon. 74)If the small hot spots look as expected. that will be a triumph for yet another scientific idea, a refinement of the ig Bang called the inflationary universe theory. Inflation says that very early on, the universe expanded in size by more than a trillion trilliontrillion trillionfold in much less than a second, propelled by a sort of antigravity. 75)Odd though it sounds, cosmic inflation is a scientifically plausible consequence of some respected ideas in elementary-particle physics. and many astrophysicists have been convinced for the better part of a decade that it is true P e 6 71)While there are almost as many definitions of history as there are historians. modern practice most closely conforms to one that sees history as the attempt to recreate and explain the significant events of the past. Caught in the web of its own tune and place, each generation of historians determines anew what is significant for it in the past. In this search the evidence found is always incomplete and scattered; it is also frequently partial or partisan. The irony of the historian,'s craft is that its practitioners always know that their efforts are but contributions to an unending proc 72)Interest in historical methods has arisen less through external challenge to the validity of history as an intellectual discipline 3
3 humans extend to other humans, or with no consideration at all. This is a false choice. Better to start with another, more fundamental, question: is the way we treat animals a moral issue at all? Many deny it. 74) Arguing from the view that humans are different from animals in every relevant respect, extremists of this kind think that animals lie outside the area of moral choice. Any regard for the suffering of animals is seen as a mistake — a sentimental displacement of feeling that should properly be directed to other humans. This view, which holds that torturing a monkey is morally equivalent to chopping wood, may seem bravely "logical". In fact it is simply shallow: the confused centre is right to reject it. The most elementary form of moral reasoning—the ethical equivalent of learning to crawl — is to weigh others' interests against one's own. This in turn requires sympathy and imagination: without which there is no capacity for moral thought. To see an animal in pain is enough, for most, to engage sympathy. 75) When that happens, it is not a mistake: it is mankind's instinct for moral reasoning in action, an instinct that should be encouraged rather than laughed at. Passage 5 They were, by far, the largest and most distant objects that scientists had ever detected: a strip of enormous cosmic clouds some 15 billion light-years from earth. 71) But even more important, it was the farthest that scientists had been able to look into the past, for what they were seeing were the patterns and structures that existed 15 billion years ago. That was just about the moment that the universe was born. What the researchers found was at once both amazing and expected; the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Cosmic Background Explorer satellite — Cobe — had discovered landmark evidence that the universe did in fact begin with the primeval explosion that has become known as the Big Bang (the theory that the universe originated in an explosion from a single mass of energy.) 72) The existence of the giant clouds was virtually required for the Big Bang, first put forward in the 1920s, to maintain its reign as the dominant explanation of the cosmos. According to the theory, the universe burst into being as a submicroscopic, unimaginable dense knot of pure energy that flew outward in all directions, emitting radiation as it went, condensing into particles and then into atoms of gas. Over billions of years, the gas was compressed by gravity into galaxies, stars, plants and eventually, even humans. Cobe is designed to see just the biggest structures, but astronomers would like to see much smaller hot spots as well, the seeds of local objects like clusters and superclusters of galaxies. They shouldn't have long to wait. 73) Astrophysicists working with groundbased detectors at the South Pole and balloon-borne instruments are closing in on such structures, and may report their findings soon. 74) If the small hot spots look as expected, that will be a triumph for yet another scientific idea, a refinement of the Big Bang called the inflationary universe theory. Inflation says that very early on, the universe expanded in size by more than a trillion trillion trillion trillionfold in much less than a second, propelled by a sort of antigravity. 75) Odd though it sounds, cosmic inflation is a scientifically plausible consequence of some respected ideas in elementary-particle physics, and many astrophysicists have been convinced for the better part of a decade that it is true. Passage 6 71) While there are almost as many definitions of history as there are historians, modern practice most closely conforms to one that sees history as the attempt to recreate and explain the significant events of the past. Caught in the web of its own tune and place, each generation of historians determines anew what is significant for it in the past. In this search the evidence found is always incomplete and scattered; it is also frequently partial or partisan. The irony of the historian's craft is that its practitioners always know that their efforts are but contributions to an unending process. 72) Interest in historical methods has arisen less through external challenge to the validity of history as an intellectual discipline
and more from internal quarrels among historians themselves. While history once revered its affinity to literature and philosophy, the emerging social sciences seemed to afford greater opportunities for asking new questions and providing rewarding approaches to an understanding of the past. Social science methodologies had to be adapted to a discipline governed by the primacy of historical sources rather than the imperatives of the contemporary world. 73)During this transfer, traditional historical methods were augmented by additional methodologies designed to interpret the new forms of evidence in the historical study. Methodolgy is a term that remains inherently ambiguous in the historical profession. 74)There is no agreement whether methodology refers to the concepts peculiar to historical work in general or to the research techniques appropriate to th various branches of historical inquiry. Historians, especially_those so blinded by their research interests that they have been accused of"tunnel method, "frequently fall victim to the"technicist fallacy. " Also common in the natural sciences, the technicist fallacy mistakenly identifies the discipline as a whole with certain parts of its technical implementation. 75)It applies equally to traditional historians who view history as only the extemal and intermal criticism of sources and to social science historians who equate their activity with specific techniques. Passage Governments throughout the world act on the assumption that the welfare of their people depends largely on the economic strength and wealth of the community. 71)Under modern conditions. this requires varying measures of centralized control and hence the help of specialized scientists such as economists and operational research experts. 72) Furthermore, it is obvious that the strength of a country's economy is directly bound up with the efficiency of its agriculture and industry. and that this in tum rests upon the efforts of scientists and technologists of all kinds. It also means that governments are increasingly compelled to interfere in these sectors in order to step up production and ensure that it is utilized to the best advantage. For example, they may encourage research in various ways including the setting up of their own research centers; they may alter the structure of education, or interfere in order to reduce the wastage of natural resources or tap resources hitherto unexploited or they may cooperate directly in the growing number of international projects related to science, economics and industry. In any case, all such interventions are heavily dependent on scientific advice and also scientific and technological manpower of all kinds 73)Owing to the remarkable development in mass-communications people everywhere are feeling new wants and are being exposed to new customs and ideas, while governments are often forced to introduce still further innovations for the reasons given above. At the same time the normal rate of social change throughout the world is taking place at a vastly accelerated speed compared with the past. For example, 74)in the early industrialized countries of Europe the process of industrialization - with all the far-reaching changes in social patterns that followed - was spread over nearly a century, whereas nowadays a developing nation may undergo the same process in a decade or so. All this has the effect of building up unusual pressures and tensions within the community and consequently presents serious problems for the governments concerned. 75) Additional social stresses may also occur because of the population explosion or problems arising from mass migration movements - themselves made relatively easy nowadays by modern means of transport. As a result of all these factors, governments are becoming increasingly dependent on biologists and social scientists for planning the appropriate programs and putting them into effect P In less than 30 years time the Star Trek holodeck will be a reality. Direct links between the brain,'s nervous system and a computer will also create full sensory virtual environments, allowing virtual vacations like those in the film Total Recall 71)There will be television chat shows hosted by robots. and cars with pollution monitors that will disable them
4 and more from internal quarrels among historians themselves. While history once revered its affinity to literature and philosophy, the emerging social sciences seemed to afford greater opportunities for asking new questions and providing rewarding approaches to an understanding of the past. Social science methodologies had to be adapted to a discipline governed by the primacy of historical sources rather than the imperatives of the contemporary world. 73) During this transfer, traditional historical methods were augmented by additional methodologies designed to interpret the new forms of evidence in the historical study. Methodolgy is a term that remains inherently ambiguous in the historical profession. 74) There is no agreement whether methodology refers to the concepts peculiar to historical work in general or to the research techniques appropriate to the various branches of historical inquiry. Historians, especially those so blinded by their research interests that they have been accused of "tunnel method," frequently fall victim to the "technicist fallacy." Also common in the natural sciences, the technicist fallacy mistakenly identifies the discipline as a whole with certain parts of its technical implementation. 75) It applies equally to traditional historians who view history as only the external and internal criticism of sources, and to social science historians who equate their activity with specific techniques. Passage 7 Governments throughout the world act on the assumption that the welfare of their people depends largely on the economic strength and wealth of the community. 71) Under modern conditions, this requires varying measures of centralized control and hence the help of specialized scientists such as economists and operational research experts. 72) Furthermore, it is obvious that the strength of a country' s economy is directly bound up with the efficiency of its agriculture and industry, and that this in turn rests upon the efforts of scientists and technologists of all kinds. It also means that governments are increasingly compelled to interfere in these sectors in order to step up production and ensure that it is utilized to the best advantage. For example, they may encourage research in various ways including the setting up of their own research centers; they may alter the structure of education, or interfere in order to reduce the wastage of natural resources or tap resources hitherto unexploited; or they may cooperate directly in the growing number of international projects related to science, economics and industry. In any case, all such interventions are heavily dependent on scientific advice and also scientific and technological manpower of all kinds. 73) Owing to the remarkable development in mass-communications, people everywhere are feeling new wants and are being exposed to new customs and ideas, while governments are often forced to introduce still further innovations for the reasons given above. At the same time the normal rate of social change throughout the world is taking place at a vastly accelerated speed compared with the past. For example, 74) in the early industrialized countries of Europe the process of industrialization — with all the far-reaching changes in social patterns that followed — was spread over nearly a century, whereas nowadays a developing nation may undergo the same process in a decade or so. All this has the effect of building up unusual pressures and tensions within the community and consequently presents serious problems for the governments concerned. 75) Additional social stresses may also occur because of the population explosion or problems arising from mass migration movements — themselves made relatively easy nowadays by modern means of transport. As a result of all these factors, governments are becoming increasingly dependent on biologists and social scientists for planning the appropriate programs and putting them into effect. Passage 8 In less than 30 years' time the Star Trek holodeck will be a reality. Direct links between the brain' s nervous system and a computer will also create full sensory virtual environments, allowing virtual vacations like those in the film Total Recall. 71) There will be television chat shows hosted by robots, and cars with pollution monitors that will disable them
when they offend. 72)Children will play with dolls equipped with personality chips. computers with in-built personalities will be regarded as workmates rather than tools, relaxation will be in front of smell-television, and digital age will have arrived According to bT s futurologist, lan Pearson, these are among the developments scheduled for the first few decades of the new millennium(a period of 1, 000 years), when supercomputers will dramatically accelerate progress in all areas 73)Pearson has pieced together the work of hundreds of researchers around the world to produce a unique millennium technology calendar that gives the latest dates when we can expect hundreds of key breakthroughs and discoveries to take place. Some of the biggest developments will be in medicine, including an extended life expectancy and dozens of artificial organs coming into use between now and 2040 Pearson also predicts a breakthrough in computer-human links. " By linking directly to our nervous system, computers could pick up what we feel and, hopefully, simulate feeling too so that we can start to develop full sensory environments, rather like the holidays in Total Recall or the Star Trek holodeck, he says. 74) But that, Pearson points out, is only the start of man-machine integration: "It will be the beginning of the long process of integration that will ultimately lead to a fully electronic human before the end of the next century. Through his research, Pearson is able to put dates to most of the breakthroughs that can be predicted. However, there are still no forecasts for when faster-than-light travel will be available, or when human cloning will be perfected, or when time travel will be possible. But he does expect social problems as a result of technological advances. a boom in neighborhood surveillance cameras will, for example, cause problems in 2010, while the arrival of synthetic lifelike robots will mean people may not be able to distinguish between their human friends and the droids. 75)And home appliances will also become so smart that controlling and operating them will result in the breakout of a new psychological disorder kitchen rage Almost all our major problems involve human behavior, and they cannot be solved by physical and biological technology alone. What is needed is a technology of behavior, but we have been slow to develop the science from which such a technology might be drawn. 61)One difficulty is that almost all of what is called behavioral science continues to trace behavior to states of mind, feelings, traits of character. human nature, and so on. Physics and biology once followed similar practices and advanced only when they discarded them. 62) The behavioral sciences have been slow to change partly because the explanatory items often seem to be directly observed and partly because other kinds of explanations have been hard to find. The environment is obviously important, but its role has remained obscure. It does not push or pull, it lects, and this function is difficult to discover and analyze. 63) The role of natural selection in evolution was formulated only a little more than a hundred years ago, and the selective role of the environment in shaping and maintaining the behavior of the individual is only beginning to be recognized and studied. As the interaction between organism and environment has come to be understood, however, effects once assigned to states of mind, feelings and traits are beginning to be traced to accessible conditions, and a technology of behavior may therefore become available. It will not solve our problems, however, until it replaces traditional prescientific views, and these are strongly entrenched. Freedom and dignity illustrate the difficulty. 64)They are the possessions of the autonomous (self-governing) man of traditional theory, and they are essential to practices in which a person is held responsible for his conduct and given credit for his achievements. A scientific analysis shifts both the responsibility and the achievement to the environment. It also raises questions concerning"values".Who will use a technology and to what ends? 65)Until these issues are resolved. a 5
5 when they offend. 72) Children will play with dolls equipped with personality chips, computers with in-built personalities will be regarded as workmates rather than tools, relaxation will be in front of smell-television, and digital age will have arrived. According to BT' s futurologist, Ian Pearson, these are among the developments scheduled for the first few decades of the new millennium (a period of 1,000 years), when supercomputers will dramatically accelerate progress in all areas of life. 73) Pearson has pieced together the work of hundreds of researchers around the world to produce a unique millennium technology calendar that gives the latest dates when we can expect hundreds of key breakthroughs and discoveries to take place. Some of the biggest developments will be in medicine, including an extended life expectancy and dozens of artificial organs coming into use between now and 2040. Pearson also predicts a breakthrough in computer-human links. "By linking directly to our nervous system, computers could pick up what we feel and, hopefully, simulate feeling too so that we can start to develop full sensory environments, rather like the holidays in Total Recall or the Star Trek holodeck," he says. 74) But that, Pearson points out, is only the start of man-machine integration: "It will be the beginning of the long process of integration that will ultimately lead to a fully electronic human before the end of the next century." Through his research, Pearson is able to put dates to most of the breakthroughs that can be predicted. However, there are still no forecasts for when faster-than-light travel will be available, or when human cloning will be perfected, or when time travel will be possible. But he does expect social problems as a result of technological advances. A boom in neighborhood surveillance cameras will, for example, cause problems in 2010, while the arrival of synthetic lifelike robots will mean people may not be able to distinguish between their human friends and the droids. 75) And home appliances will also become so smart that controlling and operating them will result in the breakout of a new psychological disorder — kitchen rage. Passage 9 Almost all our major problems involve human behavior, and they cannot be solved by physical and biological technology alone. What is needed is a technology of behavior, but we have been slow to develop the science from which such a technology might be drawn. 61) One difficulty is that almost all of what is called behavioral science continues to trace behavior to states of mind, feelings, traits of character, human nature, and so on. Physics and biology once followed similar practices and advanced only when they discarded them. 62) The behavioral sciences have been slow to change partly because the explanatory items often seem to be directly observed and partly because other kinds of explanations have been hard to find. The environment is obviously important, but its role has remained obscure. It does not push or pull, it selects, and this function is difficult to discover and analyze. 63) The role of natural selection in evolution was formulated only a little more than a hundred years ago, and the selective role of the environment in shaping and maintaining the behavior of the individual is only beginning to be recognized and studied. As the interaction between organism and environment has come to be understood, however, effects once assigned to states of mind, feelings, and traits are beginning to be traced to accessible conditions, and a technology of behavior may therefore become available. It will not solve our problems, however, until it replaces traditional prescientific views, and these are strongly entrenched. Freedom and dignity illustrate the difficulty. 64) They are the possessions of the autonomous (self-governing) man of traditional theory, and they are essential to practices in which a person is held responsible for his conduct and given credit for his achievements. A scientific analysis shifts both the responsibility and the achievement to the environment. It also raises questions concerning "values". Who will use a technology and to what ends? 65) Until these issues are resolved, a